EWP Blog

There was an HP Supercell event in Western Oklahoma, outside the PAR domain, but we worked it anyway to try to get the forecasters a real-time PAR event.

Otherwise, there was a cluster supercell outbreak in Central KS along I-70 as advertised by the SPC MODT Risk. Since we had the storm in Central Oklahoma, we did not work a ProbWarn IOP on the KS storms. Many storm chasers saw many fast-moving tornadoes.

A repeat performance is expected over KS and NW OK on Friday 23 May, however, we do not conduct operations on Fridays.  In fact, it looks quite active through 26 May, the Memorial Day Weekend, but we are off for the holiday.

Greg Stumpf (EWP Operations Coordinator)

SteveR — working with the new software and probabilities was easier tonight. Would be easier to combine wind/hail in some instances. Maybe a way to “paint” on the warning rather than having slider bars. Call to action based on probabilities — higher probs communicate stronger language. Forces you to think more about how the threat is changing/evoloving with time.

Jonathan — worked with SteveR, similar comments. Felt more comfortable. Had fewer threats tonight, so that may have contributed.

SteveH — knew what the threats were since it was in his backyard. Did a lot more analysis tonight even though he was working by himself. Updated every five minutes, 2 threats per storm, 3 storms. Was prety easy. Could work 7-8 storms if he was more comfortable with it. Storms moving same direction made it easier. Could work a lot more if it was the only thing he had to do.

Dave — finds it easier to work with ellipses than polygons. Really important to have a good measurement of the speed. Tonight we had development and decay of storms, and it would make it more challenging. No need to fine-tune areas when the storms are more “pulse” in nature.

Mike — larger your polygon the less you have to do…. modulates the work load.

Ryan — would like to make a “flexible ellipse” that could be stretched at one end. Would really like to see a preview.

Jonathan – WarnGen-style warning would be nice.

SteveR — would like the probability ticks every 5%. Several people agree.

SteveH — maybe tornado every 1%
Probabilities:

SteveH — when storms start rotating, you should put out a low-end probability

Jonathan — how will the ublic react to these low probabilities?

SteveR — how do we verify in this new paradigm? Verification is a huge workload at his office as directed by his region.

Jonathan — would like independent verification.

Discussion turned to the value of SHAVE-type verification and independent verification.

Another question: should GPRA goals be directly guide the probability threshold at which people should take action? Probably a WAS*IS question.

Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)