SteveR — working with the new software and probabilities was easier tonight. Would be easier to combine wind/hail in some instances. Maybe a way to “paint” on the warning rather than having slider bars. Call to action based on probabilities — higher probs communicate stronger language. Forces you to think more about how the threat is changing/evoloving with time.

Jonathan — worked with SteveR, similar comments. Felt more comfortable. Had fewer threats tonight, so that may have contributed.

SteveH — knew what the threats were since it was in his backyard. Did a lot more analysis tonight even though he was working by himself. Updated every five minutes, 2 threats per storm, 3 storms. Was prety easy. Could work 7-8 storms if he was more comfortable with it. Storms moving same direction made it easier. Could work a lot more if it was the only thing he had to do.

Dave — finds it easier to work with ellipses than polygons. Really important to have a good measurement of the speed. Tonight we had development and decay of storms, and it would make it more challenging. No need to fine-tune areas when the storms are more “pulse” in nature.

Mike — larger your polygon the less you have to do…. modulates the work load.

Ryan — would like to make a “flexible ellipse” that could be stretched at one end. Would really like to see a preview.

Jonathan – WarnGen-style warning would be nice.

SteveR — would like the probability ticks every 5%. Several people agree.

SteveH — maybe tornado every 1%
Probabilities:

SteveH — when storms start rotating, you should put out a low-end probability

Jonathan — how will the ublic react to these low probabilities?

SteveR — how do we verify in this new paradigm? Verification is a huge workload at his office as directed by his region.

Jonathan — would like independent verification.

Discussion turned to the value of SHAVE-type verification and independent verification.

Another question: should GPRA goals be directly guide the probability threshold at which people should take action? Probably a WAS*IS question.

Travis Smith (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 19-23 May)