EWP Blog

I am finding the PGLM lightning data to be very helpful in detecting lightning before there are any cloud to ground flashes. This data would be helpful in the Columbia, SC FA when storms are approaching outdoor events. It would allow us to give people a heads up sooner than CG data can. The animation below shows the PGLM Surface Flash Extent image overlaid with the 1-min NLDN lightning plot. Near Denver, CO, you can see how the PGLM data picks up on lightning much earlier than the NLDN first CG strike appears (16 minutes earlier!). 16 minutes is critical when it comes to trying to move a large number of people out of an event.

(Click image to see animation)

As far as other uses for the PGLM data, I’m not sure that it’s something that I would actually use after CG lightning appears and when I’m trying to decide whether or not to issue a severe thunderstorm warning. At that point, I think it would be useful to have the PGLM data incorporated into the ProbSevere data rather than looking at it on it’s own.

-Helen Hunt

I had been noticing a gradual increase in ProbSvr and at 2134Z, it reached 79%. At the exact same time, I got a 2 sigma lightning jump. This increased my confidence that the storm was intensifying and that a severe thunderstorm warning was needed. I went ahead and issued the warning based on ProbSvr and Lightning Jump alone. After the warning was out, the prob severe continued to increase to 94%. The WFO has not issued a warning on the storm. It will be interesting to see whether or not it verifies.

-Helen Hunt

Sustained total lightning as indicated by surface flash density and CIMSS prob severe model 99% indication on the cell west of Limon, CO. MESH is topping out around 1.25 inches.  Due to the sustained high lightning activity lightning jump sigma levels remain  around 1 or less.  I min visible imagery shows a developed inflow region marked by low level cu field streaming into the southeast flank of the cell.

John Pendergrast

GOES-14 1-minute visible satellite data showed a towering cumulus that tried to grow across southern portions of Greenley county at 2050 UTC…

which started to build nicely over the next 10 minutes…

and grew further, showing what looked like a nice anvil top at 2110 UTC.

However, the low level southeast winds clashed with the stronger mid level southwest winds, which tore the top of the thunderstorm away from the low level convection just 10 minutes later.

A light shower was noted on KGLD radar at 2118 UTC near the southern Greenley county border that quickly dissipated.

CoonieCatEye/Jason Williams

Upper Left: is the Boulder Regional Flash Exent, Upper Right: 1 Min Vis imagery along with CIMSS Prob Severe Model, Lower left: Lightning Jump, Lower Right:  0.5 deg Reflectivity.

John Pendergrast

Just an FYI, probably saw the highest CI I’ve seen since I’ve been here (90% eastern Osborne CO).  Went on to just be run of the mill cu with no radar reflectivity seen. I continue to monitor CI but it has not instilled much confidence this week. –Cattywampus

Fig 1: 90% CI in eastern Osborne Co.