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Did not have a high lightning count 
Had a quickly building DVIL 
ProbSevere was high 
Storm formed on boundary…moving right of mean flow
had a 2-sigma lightning jump
Combination of above elements led to warning decision.
DVIL seemed to be the best tool to use here, as well as spectrum width showing the cell going up along a boundary.
ProbSevere was fairly high for this cell in our western CWA.
Lightning is diffuse and little VIL. Would think this product (PS) would work better for cells distant from the radar, but in this case not sure. No reports.
Cell with little Probsevere, but steady velocity signal coming toward OHX 88D. Thinking some of these winds could mix down, but earlier cells may have stablilized the low levels some.
At 2026 UTC 8 June 2015 issued warning based reflectivity core aloft 50 dBZ up to the upper 30s Kft. Afterwards the NOAA/CIMSS Severe prob went up to 92% as seen in the image below. Wind Damage was reported at 2024 UTC in Washington county, MD. Wacha/MrSnow
We’ve got a lot of action going on across our CWA this afternoon, and most of the storms have had at least a 1 sigma lightning jump. Some of them have had a significant jump, up to 7 sigs.
One cell we were tracking (eventually turning more linear) was moving across Perry Co, PA. We spotted an 80 flash/min jump (from 20-100) in 10 minutes.
This area did receive reports of a tree down (~1950z) and pea-sized hail (~1950z) just before that huge jump. There was still a smaller jump taking place at that time (from 10-20/min over 10 minutes).
We did notice there were some tracking issues in terms of cells merging and determining a jump. We account this to the amount and speed of convection in our area. Visual jumps were spotted on the time series graph, but it did not show well on the LJDA map.
-BT
18 UTC NUCAPS sounding near IAD, modified for IAD surface data showing 2200 J/kg when compared to 900 J/kg in the observed IAD 18 UTC sounding. The observed sounding also shows an elevated mixed layer and capping near 825 mb which is not seen in the NUCAPS sounding. MrSnow/Wacha
Velocity signal showing some stronger winds coming toward the radar, close to the surface. Issued SPS for 50 mph winds in the boxed area.
First SVR report from downed trees in Shenandoah county at 1848 UTC 8 June 2015. Note the NOAA/CIMSS Prob. Severe Model showed an increase in Prob from 36 to 50 to 84% at 1834 UTC then a rapid decrease back to 36% by 1842 UTC. The using 84% would have resulted in a lead time of 14 minutes. The animation below shows this evolution with the storm headed in to the ground clutter near the RDA.
There was also a notable lightning jump (LJ) from 1830-1835 UTC. It might be useful to include a maximum lighting rate and rate of change value in the meta data of the lighting jump time section. MrSnow/Wacha.
Issued a warning on cell over Humphrey’s County…storm was in an environment that had already produced storms with severe hail. Noticed that it had not yet produced an overshooting top but looked close using the one minute Super rapid scan imagery also noticed local maximum area of cape out ahead of where the storm was developing with clear skies
Notice the lightning jump on the ENI time series…this may have added urgency to issue a warning had I used it to begin with. Did get wind damage reported and power outages with this cell.
Inthecards
0
Reflectivity had a good signal for a supercell here, but velocity not as impressive. Just got a report of ping pong hail here.
In cloud strikes increased with the cell as this signal showed up. Time series showed a lightning jump as well, but had some false jumps as the areal coverage of the storm showed some cell mergers.
Also had a good overshooting top.
Allowed warning to expire as cell died down. ProbSevere was lower, total lightning dropped, DVIL down too.
