The DMC on the southeawstern flank of the cold pool is acquiring some supercellular characteristics with some signs of mesocyclone development on the 0.5 deg scan. Craig and Brian switched again with Brian doing the probwarn and Craig operating D2D. Craig thinks this low-level meso is not reminiscent of a tornadic meso. Brian’s updating wind and now he’s being coached by Greg to quickly create a TOR threat on the velocity img recently swapped to left screen. Craig wants a 20% initial and keep it the same down through the swath valid time. Warning length=30 min.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Bill and Kristen didn’t pay attention to an old threat area and eventually a new storm coincidentially occupied it. They thought that new storm was the original one for which they attached the threat area. Watch out for the wagon wheel effect. This problem happened WSW of the radar.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Craig and Brian has a bunch of overlapping polygons. They think it looks completely confusing. Craig is removing the threat areas that are in the middle of the NW and SE most areas as the storms weaken over an expanding cold pool. The storms are enhancing on the cold pool perimeter on the NW and SE sides.There still is one multicell on the ENE side of the cold pool for which Craig is retaining one original threat area. Is it better to just add a new one? Maybe but overall, the grid is the final output.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Craig is now drafting a new hail threat area for a new ENE-WSW multicell segment that appears to have formed on an OFB southeast of LBB. There’s strong low-level convergence. Initial Hail prob=87%. Craig’s also adding an initial wind threat of 80% and kept steady.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Brian and Craig are worried about a merger of two small multicell complexes northwest of LBB. They’re expecting brief intensification. Brian combined two swaths with initial 90 then continued 90 for an hour.

Brian’s experiencing cognitive fatigue. Craig is taking over.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Bill issued a high prob hail threat for the cell in southeast NM (Lea co). But the storm is splitting and Bill accounted by including a wider than normal initial swath. But he’ll add a new threat area for the left mover and retain the original swath for the right mover. Environmental parameters favor the right mover to intensify.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Craig and Brian are having difficulties handling hail threat areas for a cluster of separate multicells that are sharing cold pool but not reflectivity areas. They could massively increase workload and issue a threat area for each storm or they could include the whole area in a perimeter. Their compromise is two threat areas southeast of LBB, the northwestern one includes a loose SW-NE orientation of a subcluster of multicells, and then another to the east more oriented east-west.

One cell in the middle of the eastern cluster had a short-lived TVS which Craig thought could’ve formed a brief tornado. But the signature disappeared before he could react. Does he issue a tor threat based on the possibility of another one? They don’t have a good conceptual model to issue a threat area for now.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

I asked Bill what he thought about the left split coming off the Ward county storm. He responded by putting out a very low probability hail swath beginning at 10% and raised it to 25% in 15 min. It’s sub-legacy warning.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Bill and Kristen minored out the probabilities on the Upton County storm and added a new hail swath for Ward county storm to 80 %. Golfball hail was reported in the latter storm.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)

Brian and Craig have large threat areas identified including the southern one that encompasses 4 different small multicells. Bill, Dave and Kristen have much smaller, higher probability swaths for their two storms. Does this reflect the workload management issue? In order to match threat area sizes, Brian and Craig would have to manage up to 5 threat areas.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)