A quick look at how the HSDA performed around the time 4-4.5″ hail was being reported west of DFW…

Dual-pol base data showed very low ZDR / CC near the surface within the high Z core. Some elevated KDP in spots.

Note the large region of Giant Hail classifications. While the HSDA has been overdoing the region of GH class, this storm did have a sizeable swath of very large / giant hail.

Picca

Earlier this evening, the dual-pol base data did indeed indicate a TDS, as seen in low CC/ZDR co-located with apparent debris ball. The location matched the SRM couplet very well. However, it was not enough to set off the TDS algorithm.

Picca

The 22 UTC run of the OUNWRF hinted at surface max hourly updraft helicity maxima over central/north Texas 2330-02 UTC where a few tornadoes were occurring, but generally seemed to be a bit too far south and west with the maxima.  The 20 UTC depicted fewer surface max hourly updraft helicity maxima with similar displacements too far west and south. Michael Scotten

The LAPS_OUN_1km surface instantaneous updraft helicity from the 22 UTC run captured the tornadic supercell near 00 UTC between Mineral Wells and Fort Worth, Texas.  The 0015 UTC instantaneous updraft helicity from the 22 UTC run is depicted above.  The kfws 0.5 reflectivity at 0015 UTC is depicted below.  The instantaneous updraft helicity is maxed out very close to the location of the supercell. The 21 UTC LAPS_OUN run indicated some potential for tornadic supercells across northwest Texas 23-24 UTC, which was about 50 to 100 miles too far northwest than what actually occurred. Michael Scotten

LAPS_OUN 1 km did a fine job capturing a bow echo over southern Oklahoma and isolated supercells northwest of the Dallas/Ft. Worth metroplex with 1-3 hr of lead time.

The top image is the 2 hr forecast for 00 UTC 16 May 13 from the 22 UTC run 15 May 13. The bottom image is 0.5 reflectivity from kfws at 2353 UTC.

Isolated thunderstorms have developed in the Vertical Theta-E Difference Low-Mid maximum, east of the dryline, across the north half of Texas, just west of I-35 around 23 UT.C This product may be a better indicator of moist convection east of the dryline then the dryline itself.

The GOES CI product detected a 60% yellow area at 2045 UTC.  By 2115 UTC, a thunderstorm had developed in this yellow area.  This storm strengthened and prompted the issuance of a Severe Thunderstorm Warning by 2205 UTC. Baseball hail was reported by this storm at 2212 UTC, and a tornado was observed around 2242 UTC.  The CI product gave about 20-30 minute lead time for storm development, 75-90 minute for severe weather, and nearly 120 minutes of lead time for the weak tornado.

Michael Scotten.

Got a tall and strong storm in Montague County in the northwest corner of the FWD CWA.  It built up very quickly, and we almost were too slow with the warning.  Below is a four panel of various MRMS fields:  upper left=mid level rotation tracks, upper right=height of 60 dBZ echo above -20C level, lower left=MESH, lower right=hydrometeor class with HSDA.  Note the orange MESH pixels, showing 2.5″+ hail, as well as the area of large/giant hail on the HSDA product.  The warning went out at 2205Z, and we got the first reports of golfball/baseball sized hail at 2208Z.  Just in time!

CL

The 18Z LAPS 4-hour forecast of sfc layer maximum reflectivity showed the development of a large, supercellular storm near the Gray /  Montague border.

Here is the actual reflectivity image from 2204Z.

Golfball- to baseball-sized hail has been reported with this storm.

Picca

The top image is CIRA/NSSL WRF Simulated IR while the bottom image is observed IR around 22 UTC.  The simulated IR underestimated cloud cover over Oklahoma where a mid/upper low was centered.  The convection over the Rockies in Colorado and New Mexico as well as cooler cloud tops over eastern Texas and Louisiana were handled well by the simulated IR.  The convection near Lubbock, Texas was captured very well.
was handled very well by the simulated IR.  The band of