3DVAR captured an semi-interesting evolution of a storm over SW Gaines County in far west TX. Notice the increase in updraft and updraft helicity prior to an increase in MESH hail size. SEly inflow south of the storm was also strong in the 3DVAR 1km wind. The images are from 0040, 0050, and 0100 UTC on 13 June.

WoF Composite updraft increased to 15-17m/s just before cell moved se into MAF CWA

Issued Warning #2 on cell in Eddy County…mostly based on reflectivity incrsg  at time of reissue.  Skov

Latest 00Z run of the OUNWRF now showing the storm moving east-southeast across NE DeBaca splitting in the next hour…and the radar data is starting to suggest that as well.

This just in…hail to the size of quarters being reported from this storm in DeBaca County.

Garmon/Dutter

Time to update our SVR for the storm moving southeast out of Guadalupe County.  Latest OUNWRF showing a more southeastward progression with this storm (not suggesting a split)…so we are issuing d new SVR to the southeast for the next hour.  Also, CTC rates are showing a -15.5C/15 min to the east.

Here is the latest cross section from the DeBaca storm…

…and the MESH just jumped to 2.5 inches…

…and last but not least is a pretty good TBS off that storm…

Garmon/Dutter

Forces are conspiring against me. The SVR polygon was originally issued this way.

Over the next 45 minutes, the two storms split and the left-mover from the original eastern storm split again. All the storms eventually moved at 60-90 deg angles away from the original track.

The coup de grace was the “right-mover” from the second split later showed a very strong antimesocyclone from KLBB. It is also moving VERY slowly SW. Will have to upgrade to a TOR and probably a FFW.  Ug.

Glad these warnings aren’t going anywhere…..or are they?

SNELSON

Issued a severe thunderstorm warning for Yoakum county. A splitting supercell over Lea county New Mexico moved north-northeast toward Yoakum county. Although the most severe portion of the storm looked to remain west of our CWA border, a new updraft on the east side developed and moved toward/into the southwest corner of the storm.

MESH showed max hail of around quarter size, but opted to go slightly higher based on anticipated updraft strength.

Update:

The storm has begun to surge northeast. LBB radar now shows 60 dbz to almost 40kft. MESH product has shown some increase to ~1.5, but had not responded yet to the strengthening supercell. Added 2″ diameter hail to the warning, as well as gusts aoa 60 mph.

The MESH 120 min track shows the storm split over Reeves and Ward counties in SW TX very well.  Probably should post this under the “Geeking Out” category.

0015z OUN-WRF Updraft Helicity

0055z OUN-WRF Updraft Helicity

New towers going up western Guadalupe and San Miguel Counties being watched closely for cooling cloud tops around -15C/15min.  If growth rate increases slightly, may need additional SVRs for this area shortly. Last minute report just came in of 1 inch hail with warned storm over eastern Guadalupe County southeast of Santa Rosa.

Garmon/Dutter

Had to issue a new warning to account for a left moving storm in eastern Lea County, NM. 3DVAR did not pick up any sign of the antimesocyclone, which is not easily seen in the low levels.  Should the updraft helicity or more likely, helicity show negative values for cases like this?

Update: we also missed the right moving split from the western storm. Would not want to be the warning forecaster in MAF. Notice the splits in the MESH tracks.