The EWP2012 Thank You Post

Here is our Thank You post for EWP2012, expressing our gratitude to the hard work and long hours put in by our forecasters, developers, and other participants for our spring experiment.  Even though we had a quiet severe weather season this year, we found storms on pretty much all the operational days in the five weeks we operated.  This was the first year we used AWIPS2, and it was a great success and mostly-well received by our participants and staff.

The biggest expression of thanks goes to our new full-time AWIPS2 support person Darrel Kingfield(CIMMS/NSSL), who put in many extra hours to pull off the transition to the new software.  AWIPS2 performed very well, both due to Darrel’s efforts, and the fact that it is a better software package than AWIPS1.

These scientists brought their expertise to the experiment and were available to observe live operations and provide support to our visitors:

For the Warn-On-Forecast 3D Radar Data Assimilation project we’d like to thank the principle scientists, Travis Smith (CIMMS/NSSL), Kristin Calhoun (CIMMS/NSSL), and Jidong Gao (NSSL).

For the OUN WRF project, they included principle investigators Gabe Garfield (CIMMS/NWS WFO OUN) and David Andra (NWS WFO OUN).

For the GOES-R Proving Ground experimental warning activities, including the Pseudo-Geostationary Lightning Mapping (pglm) array experiment, our thanks go to principle scientists Chris Siewert (CIMMS/SPC) and Kristin Calhoun (CIMMS/NSSL), along with John Walker (UAH), Chris Jewett (UAH), Lori Schultz (UAH), Wayne Feltz (UW-CIMSS), Justin Sieglaff (UW-CIMSS), Lee Cronce (UW-CIMSS), Bob Aune (UW-CIMSS), Jordan Gerth (UW-CIMSS), Dan Lindsey (CSU-CIRA), Amanda Terborg (GOES-R AWC liaison, Kansas City, MO), and Chad Gravelle (GOES-R NWSTC liaison, Kansas City, MO).

We had undergraduate students helping out in some real-time support roles including monitor real-time severe weather reports.  They included Bethany Hardzinski, Madison Miller, Christopher Reidel, Craig Schwer, and Jennifer Tate (all CIMMS/NSSL).

Next, we’d like to thank out Weekly Coordinators for keeping operations on track: Greg Stumpf (CIMMS/NWS-MDL), Jim LaDue (NWS/WDTB), Kristin Calhoun (CIMMS/NSSL), Travis Smith (CIMMS/NSSL), and Gabe Garfield (CIMMS/NWS WFO OUN), as well as “guest” co-coordinator, Chris Karstens (Iowa State University).

We also want to thank our overall EWP2012 Operations Coordinator who handled the experiment logistics, Greg Stumpf (CIMMS/NWS-MDL).

The following individuals from NWS/WDTB were instrumental in facilitating the “Tales From the Testbed” Webinars:  Clark Payne, Robert Prentice, Mark Sessing, and  Steve Martinaitis. And thanks to Ed Mahoney for spearheading the idea.

We had IT help from Aaron Anderson (NWS/WFO Norman, OK), Jeff Brogden (CIMMS/NSSL), Karen Cooper (INDUS/NSSL), Vicki Farmer (INDUS/NSSL), Paul Griffin (NSSL), Darrel Kingfield (CIMMS/NSSL), Brad Sagowitz (NSSL), and Greg Stumpf (CIMMS/NWS-MDL).

Public Relations were handled by Susan Cobb (CIMMS/NSSL) and Keli Pirtle (NSSL).

The EWP leadership team of Travis Smith (CIMMS/NSSL) and David Andra (NWS/WFO Norman, OK), along with the other HWT management committee members (Steve Weiss (SPC), Jack Kain (NSSL), Mike Foster (NWS/WFO Norman, OK), Russ Schneider (SPC), and Steve Koch (NSSL), Stephan Smith (MDL Decision Assistance Branch), Steve Goodman (GOES-R program office), and Jeff Waldstreicher (NWS Eastern Region Headquarters and Decision Support Services Pilot Project) were all instrumental in providing the necessary resources to make the EWP spring experiment happen.

Finally, we express a multitude of gratitude to our National Weather Service and international operational meteorologists who traveled to Norman to participate as evaluators in this experiment (and we also thank their local and regional management for providing the personnel). They are:

Marc Austin (WFO, Norman, OK)

Ryan Barnes (WFO, Norman, OK)

Brian Carcione (WFO, Huntsville, AL)

Dave Carlsen (Environment Canada)

Todd Dankers (WFO, Denver, CO)

Michael Dutter (WFO, Marquette, MI)

Jeff Garmon (WFO, Mobile, AL)

Rich Grumm (WFO, State College, PA)

Matt Hirsch (WFO, Phoenix, AZ)

Jeffrey Hovis (WFO, Charleston, WV)

Ty Judd (WFO, Norman, OK)

Stephen Kearney (CWSU, Kansas City, MO)

Andy Kleinsasser (WFO, Wichita, KS)

Chris Leonardi (WFO, Charleston, WV)

James McCormick (AFWA, Offutt AFB, Omaha, NE)

Chris McKinney (WFO, Houston, TX)

Steve Nelson (WFO, Peachtree City, GA)

Roland Nuñez (CWSU, Houston, TX)

Jennifer Palucki (WFO, Albuquerque, NM)

Julia Ruthford (WFO, Charleston, WV)

Andrea Schoettmer (WFO, Louisville, KY)

Kristen Schuler (CWSU, Kansas City, MO)

Randy Skov (CWSU, Atlanta, GA)

Gary Skwira (WFO, Lubbock, TX)

Gordon Strassberg (CWSU, New York, NY)

Tim Tinsley (WFO, Brownsville, TX)

Helge Tuschy (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany)

Kathrin Wapler (Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany)

Many thanks to everyone, including those we may have inadvertently left off this list. Please let us know if we missed anyone. We can certainly edit this post and include their names later.

The EWP2012 Team

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OAX: Nice depiction of wind event over southern Omaha

KOAX 88D and 3DVAR analysis clearly showed a damaging wind event across southern Omaha and Offutt AFB.  The images can speak for themselves. Only if the warning forecaster was paying close attention to the base data from KOAX, would he/she have caught the event much ahead of 3DVAR. Note also the Tim and I had warning out of this area well in advance of the event as the hail threat quickly evolved to a heavy rain and damaging wind threat.

SNELSON/TMT

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ABQ: CTC + Situational Awareness = Great Fcst

Although we are in AMA, we took a look at the CTC in NM, since that area has seen significant CTC signals over the last week. Once again, we are seeing strong CTC signals off the terrain in NM with little or no convective development. Here are a series of 3 signals in the same place over several hours. Take home point — this is a great product, however forecasters need to know their environment to use this product in enhanced warning ops and beware of times that the convection is being forced by the terrain. Case in point, although the CTC product showed -20->-25c/15min cooling values over higher terrain areas in SE NM, the sfc dwpts were in the teens and lower 20s. Almost no way convection could develop with this dry air. MRD

2015z:

2215z:

2315z:

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AMA: Gonna Eat at the Big Texan Tonight

We have switched CWA’s and now are located in the AMA CWA. Ongoing supercell thunderstorms were severe when we began. Left moving supercell had a max updraft strength of 27 m/s. MESH was appropriately lagging and was giving me 1.5″ hail. Went ahead and added golf ball size hail to the warning, although MESH has now exceeded 2″ in diameter. With only a volume scan or two from the KAMA radar, the warning was based heavily on the MESH 30 minute track.

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AMA — Severe in Potter Co.

MPX decided to move to AMA for the last hour of the experiment. MPX storms mainly just big rain producers with FF a problem. Went with a warning for Potter without much radar data yet mainly due to strong updraft, strong upper diverergence and MESH of 1.75 inch. Nice inflow into the storm as well.

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OAX: 3DVAR 1km winds too low?

KOAX 88D appears to have a poor viewing angle to detect the strong winds behind a bow echo/gust front over Lancaster county, NE. This likely negatively impacted the ability of 3DVAR to see the strong winds.  The line moved through the Lincoln, NE area and produced 60 to 65 mph gusts, yet the 2310 UTC 3DVAR 1km winds only show north winds of 17 m/s. On Monday, 3DVAR 1km winds did very well handling the damaging winds associated with the MCS that moved through the Memphis (MEG) CWA.  Just need to install more radars to minimize this problem. 🙂

0600 PM     TSTM WND GST     CERESCO                 41.06N 96.65W
06/14/2012  E65 MPH          SAUNDERS           NE   TRAINED SPOTTER
0608 PM     TSTM WND GST     LINCOLN                 40.82N 96.69W
06/14/2012  M60 MPH          LANCASTER          NE   ASOS

SNELSON/TMT

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OAX – 1st TOR warning

The storm that had steady updraft strength around 25 ms over Harrison County gave some lead time before low level mesocyclone tightened north of Magnolia on KOAX 0.5 deg SRM. But 3DVAR did not show strong increase in updraft helicity with max value reaching 50 m/s at 2300z. Low level meso has weakened but strong mid level circulation remains at 2312z.

TMT/SN

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GID Update…Severe Threat Shifting into Southern CWA by 7 PM??

22Z OUNWRF forecasting storms to fire along outflow from current storms and consolidate severe threat across the southern zones by 7 PM.  It really starts to hit the hail threat across the southern zones by that time.

In the very near term, OUNWRF did a decent job getting the intensification of the Furnace and Harlan storms, taking the furnace storm southeast out of the CWA briefly, and weakening the Harlan storm completely.

Here is the current warning/radar situation…

Garmon/Skov

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OAX – 3DVAR trends for storms north of Omaha

The 3DVAR products are showing an intensification with the line of storms north of Omaha.  Updraft strength has increased to around 20 m/s Washington and Burt Counties. MESH increased to 2.2 inches in southern Burt County.

Latest updraft strength up to 21 m/s over southeast Burt County.

UPDATE…3DVAR shows an increase in updraft strength with a strong increase in max divergence above 8 km in northern Harrison County. Maybe see an increase in hail size in the next 15 minutes.

Continuing to increase…to 27 m/s at 2250z.

TMT/SN

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