The PGLM Total Lightning shows you the “spider web” of the lightning strike, a much bigger area spatially then the particular point on the ground the bolt hit as you see below. It will definitely help me warn viewers ahead of time that there could be lightning in there area before it actually hits the ground. Great Product!
I haven’t been able to us the lightning jump detection to see how that does. Hopefully later this week. ~ Danielle
Overlaying the 0.5 km MSL composite merged reflectivity with the flash extent density showed some interesting things. The image below shows a positive correlation between flash extent density and reflectivity.
As the flash extent density increased, the reflectivity increased as well, which can be seen from the meteogram. Furthermore, the increase in reflectivity appeared to be a response to the increase in flash extent density. For example, flash extent density displayed an increase in its value while the cell of interest still had relatively low reflectivities (<= 30 dBz). In the successive image of 0.5 km MSL composite merged reflectivity, a large increase in reflectivity was observed. Additionally, the max reflectivity of the cell seemed to approximately follow the max in flash extent density, with the location of max flash extent density remaining slightly out ahead of the location of max reflectivity.
This image is displaying Flash Initiation Density and Flash Extent Density in addition to the typical 5 minute lightning plot. What stands out here is that larger areas of the storms are more electrified than viewed by just the 5 minute lightning plot. This helps the forecaster determine better what the arrival times to use when they are considering TS or VCTS for amendments to TAFs or may help in giving a better ETA of lightning for large events such county fairs for emergency managers or spot fires other IDSS customers.
Having one minute satellite data available to be able to see the finer details of storm evolution/de-evolution is one of those products that is incredibly helpful. In the screen capture below, you can see a side-by-side picture of the traditional view of visible satellite data only being updated every 15 minutes (with a longer lag time to actually ingest the product for viewing) on the left and super-rapid scan on the right. Between 2245Z (left) and 2258Z (right), you can see what has occurred near the WY/NB border in just a 13 minute time period. While not terribly significant with this evening’s weather activity, it is still noteworthy and I can only imagine the cloud features that we’re missing to indicate storm development and trends without SRSOR.
~Linda
In the image above the NearCast model indicates a gradient in the theta-e across western into northeast Nebraska. The visible satellite image (upper right) indicates a line of congestus along this gradient from near the SD border into central Nebraska. The GOES-R CI indicates some fairly high probability of initiation in this CU field. It is interesting though because this area is behind the surface front and there is little surface forcing for CI. Given the large-scale and mesoscale forcing in this area it seems like CI would be unlikely.
-JB
Looking forward two hours at the simulated IR/WV imagery versus observed (and remaining focused near the WY/NB border), the spatial placement is fairly good but intensity continues to be overdone. Here’s a snapshot at 22Z:
As aforementioned, the simulated product provides some confidence in where to remain situationally aware but does not give confidence if taken strictly at face value when taking the overall picture into consideration.
~Linda
When using the tracking meteogram product, I found that while using it with a gridded radar it dropped data. The second problem I found was I can’t edit the meteogram itself. When products are hidden in the main AWIPS screen, they should also be hidden in the meteogram. Another suggestion, is that you should be able to reload the last tracking you did so it saves you extra work and time. I really do like the concept of this and the reason I am suggesting these changes is because I would like to use the product in the future! It is useful! – Vollmar
For future reference. IR satellite is in Celsius. The LAPs data is in Kelvin. It may be a good idea to convert the LAPs temperatures scale to Celsius for consistencies sake.
Grant H.
Unfortunately, vLAPS seems to be struggling in getting a handle with the lack of significant convection across eastern Wyoming, the panhandle of Nebraska, and southern South Dakota. Take a look at the screen capture below at 2230Z:
The KLNX 0.5 base reflectivity is overlaid on the vLAPS surface max base reflectivity and as you can see, vLAPS is overdone. As a result, I have low confidence in using this as a reliable tool for this afternoon’s/evening’s activity.
~Linda
In the lower left panel CAPE from the LAPS 20Z run is displayed. Of interest is the enhancement in the CAPE fields due to Lake Francis in FSD. At the same time suppression is also occurring along Mitchell River. This appears to be a more common effect than in previous models.
Grant H.
