Using 8km 5min total lightning grid and plot along with cell flash rate tracking, polygons, dangerous thunderstorm alerts to watch lightning trends. Kept the time series visible on the right. Cell trended toward zero so letting the warning expire. We did have a few instances where cells merged so lightning went to zero in the initial cell.
Keeping an eye on the one-minute GOES super rapid scan with the CI product. You can clearly see the boundary and the lake breeze boundary on the satellite loop. You can see a weak shortwave denoted by the blue area on the CI product…we are thinking that once this intersects with the other boundaries we will get enough lift to break the weak cap and initiate convection.
Even though we aren’t dealing with linear storms, these two cells are still close enough in proximity for the ProbSevere model to merge them. Out of curiosity, I wonder if the cell’s proximity to the radar will impact the model. Or if the model would be more useful in this situation since we can’t sample the storm as well. -BT
Boundary positioned today over LOT CWA. Small amount of CIN remaining but Convective temps are expected to be reached shortly across much of the area. Goes_R parameters are showing CAPES in excess of 3000 across the western portions of the CWA. These 18Z values are showing somewhat less than what we are currently seeing on the SPC Meso-analysis, but this may be due to the sharp increase in capes over the last several hours over 2000 increase in some areas. Other indicies (LI, TT and showalter) are all sufficient to support severe weather…effective bulk shear is also about 25-30KT. Given the instability and shear the main threats will be for damaging winds and hail.