MCS in MEG – warning decision making #2

Looks like we “missed” a wind event in Tippah county, MS.

0449 PM     TSTM WND DMG     RIPLEY                  34.73N 88.94W
06/11/2012                   TIPPAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NUMEROUS TREES DOWN COUNTY WIDE. LARGE TREE REPORTED ON A
            MANUFACTURED HOME. ESTIMATED GUST OF 70 MPH.

Looked at the 3DVAR 1km wind field and simulated reflectivity (shown below) valid 2140UTC (440 PM CDT). Surprised to see a 60kt wind on the northern border of Tippah county on the TN/MS border. KNQA is about 60nm away from this point. Not sure how accurate the 60kt estimate is that far away from the closest radar. The report is pretty vague to begin with also. Nonetheless, very impressed that 3DVAR had indications of damaging winds.

Also looked at MRMS swaths of hail, updraft, rotation and updraft helicity. At 2145UTC, some support for hail and perhaps wind.

Did receive a report of nickel size hail from this area, but nothing bigger so far.

0449 PM     HAIL             RIPLEY                  34.73N 88.94W
06/11/2012  E0.88 INCH       TIPPAH             MS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL REPORTED NEAR RIPLEY

SNELSON/TY
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