GREMLIN was helpful early in the event to quickly identify most intense thunderstorms developing across SE Texas, but as more convection developed it became less useful. A severe thunderstorm warning was issued for the cell highlighted in blue on the top right panel of Figure 2 which shows MRMS. GREMLIN data hardly shows much lower reflectivities for the severe cell as more frequent lightning producers to the northwest are likely causing it to struggle.

88D radar data showed a tall and strong Z core. Strong STD and lower ZDR/CC values were also noted aloft though were not shown here.

This was right at the end of the day so didn’t have time to issue more warnings, but storm to the NW is likely severe by this point just given supercell characteristics.

OCTANE STD showed the severe cell with cooling cloud tops and then showing a STD signal as the storm quickly grew taller than an anvil from an upstream thunderstorm. The STD signal was rather weak though and was even weaker than some sub-severe storms which developed across East Texas. This could have been due to disrupted flow from upstream convection. The product did still help me quickly realize there was new convection developing over SW LA and led to me eventually issuing a warning after doing further analysis on 88D radar data.

Didn’t see too many significant differences between LC V1 and V2 overall. I did find this image interesting as convection developed across SW Louisiana LC V1 had higher probs over a larger area before V2. Further north across central Louisiana, there was additional convection developing under thicker cirrus where V2 did a better job showing higher probabilities of lightning. LC V1 only had low or moderate probs at most while there were a few lightning strikes already occurring. I forgot to save an image from that example.

– Ricky Bobby