Two areas of concern grabs our attention today. One area is associated with the departing system toward the east coast where a slight risk has been laid out from AL to VA. Storms were already occurring in AL with several TORs at briefing time, however the threat may focus more in the Carolinas and VA by the time any prob warn activities commenced. The second area is a slight risk area in KS and northern OK. This area already has convection forming in eastern CO. The moisture’s a little light but lapse rates are much steeper than the eastern risk zone. Both areas have sufficient shear for supercells.

The shortwave trough in CO is progged to move well to the north of the PAR and CASA areas and the probability of convection is small. The most likely time for convection in these areas would be after 0300 UTC.

We will probably go with probability warning activities following the SHAVE experiment.

At 2200 UTC, SHAVE was already active on two large hail producing supercells in western KS. Probwarn activities are focusing on the DDC area again.

Jim LaDue (EWP Weekly Coordinator, 5-9 May)