Two splitting cells over central Texas in FWD CWA showed favorable signatures both for convective initiation, ProbSevere and ENI lightning jump and flash rates.

At 1845z, the UAH Convective Initiation product maximized at about 70% in the vicinity of the developing storms. However, there were numerous other signals of similar value across central Texas, which did develop into thunderstorms.

About 45 minutes later (1930z), the NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere signals started off at approximately 40%. Over the next hour (2006z and 2030z), the ProbSevere increased to greater than 80% and then hit a maximum value of 94% (at 2008z). Environment around this time was characterized by CAPE between 2000-3000 J/kg and effective shear about 30 kts.

ProbSevere at 1930z

ProbSevere at 2006z

ProbSevere at 2030z

Examining the ENI lightning jump algorithm, the two cells bounced around 1.0 sigma level for awhile but never reached 2 (the ‘threshold’ for severe).

Looking at the time series, it’s clear that there was at least a in-cloud jump from around 2000z to 2012z. However, plotting the ENI total lightning plan view showed between 40 and 50 flashes, however the time series only had approximately 10 or less. There were some conflicting data between the two products.

Overall, felt these storms were marginally severe in a higher CAPE environment. No storm reports were received.