When considering two storms in the southern MAF forecast area, one was clearly warnable for large hail. However, with ProbSevere model indicating >80% on a somewhat close western storm, the decision was made to include the western storm within the same SVR polygon. The radar data was unremarkable for the western storm at the time the eastern storm was warned for – so this was a ProbSevere inclusion. In the radar scans that followed, the western storm /northwest of Pecos/ saw 63 dbZ to -20C, and 64dbZ to 0C, indicating the probability of 1″ hail was more likely (via radar data). Lightning data continued to be unremarkable, possibly due to location in the network.

Rocky Balboa