An odd or false reading from LightningCast occurred on the Dashboard readout on May 8, 2025.  The IDSS event was the Southern Skies Music Festival in Knoxville, TN. The screenshot below shows the Max Lightning Potential (10-mile radius) increasing dramatically after 14:40 UTC while the other LightningCast options don’t suggest any potential for lightning (in next 60 minutes) until after 15:45 UTC and even then, the others didn’t have any probability over 30%. On the plainview map comparing LightningCast 1 vs LightningCast 2 (Figures 1, 2, 3), the contours finally overlap the 10-mile event ring by 20:31 UTC and match up with the Dashboard probability at the same time (See Figure 2).  Discussions within the HWT noted the issue could likely be a domain or pixel issue for the Max P.

Screenshot of the LightningCast Dashboard for Southern Skies Music Festival on May 8, 2025 from 19:40 UTC to 21:25 UTC. Interesting to note the blue arrows pointing to high probability of lightning depicted by the Max while the others remained less than 10% until 15:45 UTC.

Figure 1: At 19:46 UTC, the lightning potential approaches the 10-mile radius when the Max probability suggests nearly a 50% probability of lightning in the next 60 minutes.

Figure 2: At 20:31 UTC, the 10 and 25 probability of lightning enter the 10-mile radius.

Figure 3: At 21:26 UTC is when the probability of lightning really tapers off, even the Max P version.

Loop of the LightningCast version 1 and 2 surrounding the Southern Skies Music Festival.

– Podium