San Antonio: broad cu field is still fighting substantial dry aloft despite extreme instability in the Great Bend region. No notable cooling or anything of note in the OCTANE data. Residual outflow boundary from earlier MCS is acting as a mechanism for a lone strong-severe thunderstorm just north of our CWA. Strong OCTANE divergence and cooling seen along the nose of PHS instability gradient with 3500+ CAPE; shear is essentially zero across this region. PHS composite reflectivity clearly did not forecast this outflow and thus the convection.
2100z: Strong-severe lone thunderstorm with very clear and strong divergence signal in both divergence field and speed fields. Rainbow signal seen in the direction field due to the very limited shear.
Orphaning anvils in the cooling OCTANE fields to the west of the primary convection suggest the PSH fields for instability are just displaced to the east at 2100z.
Nice depiction of the PHS being wrong but right at the same time. Clearly slightly displaced with instability gradient to the east, but accurately showed the single cell or two behavior that we have seen.
Impressive single cell continues as of 2130z, and some notable cloud top cooling and divergence is now seen in the cell to the southeast. Instability axis is clearly ~50 miles to the north of the PHS.
Lightningcast is bullish on both the southeast and south newly developing convection. Very broad contours however, possibly too much false alarm area here (?).
Broad persistent divergence in OCTANE fields in the southern cell. DHX radar shows 50 dbZ core over 30k feet within an extreme instability zone of 4000+ j/kg. Issued a severe
Large jump in cooling seen above the divergence field in OCTANE, expecting further intensification shortly in the next.
DHX Radar Divergence maxing out around ~90-100 knots as of 2150z. OCTANE cloud top divergence is generally sitting between 25-40 knots.
Double Rainbow!
Deep persistent OCTANE divergence in speed and direction, core weakening slightly based on DHX radar but still likely warranted a second warning. No signs of real weakening in any of the satellite products, but radar not quite as tall with 50 dbZ core.
-Hellothere