THE PHS MODEL GUIDANCE has had difficulty providing an accurate near term forecast with respect to the purely linear mode to the MCS as it moves east into the Texarkana region. This is most noticeable with respect to the southern portion of the linear convection. This can be seen easily below with the 3 hr forecast (in the image below) is the top panel of the image. The composite reflectivity (considered verification) is the bottom panel of the image.

THE GREMLIN MACHINE LEARNING GUIDANCE on the other hand has performed very well with the linear MCS in the near terms, along with other convection further downstream to the east. In the images below Gremlin is the top image and MRMS (considered verification) is the bottom image.

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