Anticipating most of the activity, should it develop, to begin in the next couple of hours in the western/southwestern portion of ABR’s CWA. However, I wanted to take a quick look at PHS to see some of the environmental parameters and how it relates to what’s going on now (and maybe later).

PHS Composite Reflectivity overlayed onto Visible Satellite (left) and MRMS Reflectivity (right)

For the above loop, PHS has perhaps the general idea of CI from the convection from earlier this afternoon, but struggled a bit with placement of some the stronger cells in the east. However, I think it may have a good handle of the lull we’re expecting until later this afternoon. It will be interesting to see whether we get storms in the line of pearls like it’s suggesting.

PHS MUCAPE at 20Z

SPC (RAP) MUCAPE at 19Z

Comparing the MUCAPE from SPC’s Mesoanalysis page (RAP) and PHS, it seems like both agree on ~2000 J/kg nosing into the southwestern portion of ABR’s CWA. This is the area that we are monitoring for initiation over the next couple of hours.

Forecaster Cumulus