Monitoring convective development over the southwestern portion of the ABR CWA, where we are providing DSS support to a Fishing Derby (yellow range ring – 10 miles). From this data, I would be able to let an EM know that we’re noticing an uptick in lightning probabilities due to storm cells developing to the south/southeast of the Derby and moving northeast. These are not severe at this time and no lightning has been observed as of yet. However, currently, probabilities of lightning within 10 miles are between 40-50%. If I were to use LC while at an on-site deployment, I would have both the map view (first image/loop below) and the graph (second image below) up to show what I am looking at, but especially the map view to give context to the graph.
 |
| LightningCast in “map view” showing probabilities of one or more flashes (as an image, not contoured) |
 |
| LightningCast Dashboard showing lightning probabilities at DSS point (Fishing Derby, Aberdeen, DS) |
UPDATE # 1 – Lightning has been observed! From when the 10% contour (10% chance of 10 or more flashes) first popped up (red contour north of Lyman) at 2010Z, it was 10 minutes until GLM and the ground networks observed flashes. It was 5 minutes later when ground networks observed CGs.
 |
| LightningCast – time of first 10% contour (red) 2010Z |
 |
| LightningCast – GLM and ground networks observe flashes 2020Z |
 |
| LightningCast – Ground networks observe CGs 2025Z |
In terms of lead time, I crafted a DSS message between 310-315pm (seen in the first paragraph above this update) and the first flashes were observed at 320p and CGs at 325p. Therefore, this gave a 10-15 minute lead time.
