We have a Fishing Derby ongoing near Pierre, South Dakota. We observed some differences in the LightningCast probabilities within a 10 mile radius between the AWIPS contour plot and the dashboard.

Here’s an image from AWIPS at 2004Z (1504 local time), with the DSS point marked by a 10-mile radius near Pierre SD (white circle), and the LightningCast probabilities (60-min for 1 flash) contoured in blue and green.

Next, here is a look at the dashboard for the same DSS event. Of interest is the pink line, which shows the maximum probability for a flash within 10 miles of the DSS point within the last 5 minutes.

At the 1506 (local time) time slot on the dashboard, it shows the maximum probability of 47 percent. However, the AWIPS image above shows the greatest contour values within the DSS point radius for that same time minute span (at 1504 local time) and the value only barely exceeds 30 percent. It appears that the value on the dashboard is reading about 15% higher than the value that would be implied by the contour display in AWIPS.

Functionally, as long as the trends are consistent, this may not make much of an impact on messaging or forecasting for this DSS point. However, having the values more closely matching between the two sources is something that would likely increase forecaster confidence.

–Insolation