Here we compare convective initation in the PHS model (right) versus the HRRR (left). Both models have relatively similar SBCAPE (around 1000-20000 J/kg) but the HRRR does carry CIN longer through the afternoon. The 16Z (and 17Z, not shown) PHS model produces convection by 21Z to 22Z, while the 17Z HRRR waits until 23Z.

Below is the 1854Z GOES-East day cloud phase RGB which shows some shallow cumulus growth in western to north central areas of the CWA. This may lead to more confidence in the earlier convective development from the PHS model.

-Joaq