Wanted to provide an assessment of LightningCast on the cells developing on the KS/MO border. This is the same area of initiating convection previously mentioned in the “Tracking Convective Development…” blog post. This post will focus on the storms moving between Kansas City and St Joseph.

Lower probabilities for Lightning Cast (10% to 25%) began appearing for these particular storms as early as 1856Z. Probabilities for 10-flash began appearing after 1922Z.

The first cloud flash detected by ENTLN occurred at 1924Z. The first flash detection by GLM was at 1928Z. The first CG strike (NLDN) occurred at 1946Z.

All in all, Lightning Cast provided a considerable amount of lead time, which I found to be useful.

The Lightning Cast time series for KSJT (airport near St Joseph) also showed a steady increase as these storms approached and strengthened, with lead times. Probabilities increased above 50% about 10 minutes before flashes began being detected near KSJT.

–Insolation