Viewing CI and LightningCast (LC). LC probabilities on the SW portion of the storm (in the center) at 1958Z ranged between 70-75%. Just before GLM signatures pop up at 2007Z, LC probabilities jump up to around 82%. Not included in the animation, but at 1951Z, LC probabilities were around 50%. The overall trend upward would give me confidence that I can use this product to tell an emergency manager the potential for lightning is medium to high within the next 10-20 minutes (using this case, hypothetically starting at 1951Z).

Lightning Cast product overlaid on Cloud Phase Distinction on the left and radar reflectivity on the right. 20 May 2024

Forecaster Cumulus