Overall, GREMLIN performs fairly well with the zoomed out shape of the precipitation returns compared to radar, but perhaps a bit larger extent. Picks up on a few heavier cells moreso versus heavier stratiform rain. Since the overall radar mosaic of GREMLIN looks so close to current radar, it would increase my confidence in using it for the big picture (especially if the radar data were to go out for some reason).
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| GREMLIN vs radar reflectivity 2010Z through 2058Z 20 May 2024 |
Focusing on the two cells in the west… it’s interesting because it looks like GREMLIN resolves both cells fairly well initially but follows the evolution of the southern cell for a time a bit better than the northern cell. In this instance, I couldn’t say much about confidence (sort of cancels out). But, it would be important to make sure to take into account the environment and also maybe use multiple tools in addition to GREMLIN to help with confidence.
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| Zoomed in GREMLIN vs radar reflectivity 2010Z through 2058Z 20 May 2024 |
Forecaster Cumulus