While more intense convection has been slow to develop in southeastern, the LightningCast probability for >10fl started to increase as synoptic forcing improved. About 13 minutes later (image below), the GLM flash extent density increased to around 30 flashes per 5 minutes, which was well signaled by LightningCast. While the probability depicted by LightningCast wasn’t terribly high (to around 15 percent initially), the upward trend in probability did signal the potential.

-Joaq