Protecting the Foodies

A Severe Thunderstorm watch that covered most of Columbia’s CWA was where we concentrated our forecasting efforts today. We found ourselves with no radar and were forced to make decisions on warnings with satellite only. As a result we made some modifications and combined the power of GREMLIN and OCTANE. Here’s what that love child looks like:

One of the issues we had in making decisions based on GREMLIN data was the lack of information it provided. GREMLIN provides a radar emulation and given that it’s a satellite based product it would be nice to see more information in the sample tool of what’s being shown. Values like temperature at highest reflectivity and echotops could be inferred by GREMLIN to help forecasters make better decisions if radar wasn’t available. The other issue we had with GREMLIN was the latency. Products were running anywhere from 15-20 minutes behind the rest of the satellite products that we were using.

A few minutes later we issued our first SVR warning for the eastern edge of CAE CWA for winds over 60MPH and nickle sized hail (sub severe).

As our storm moved out of the CWA we allowed the SVR to expire and took a look at the PHS Forecast model and compared it to the HRRR to prepare for the next round of thunderstorms. But both models seemed to agree that more TSRA was unlikely:

Storms in GSP came together and eventually created a good line of thunderstorms from GREMLIN’s point of view. GREMLIN was picking up some areas of higher DBZ and a lightning jump through the line was consistent with what we’d expect to see on radar for a SVR. A warning was issued on a line of storms: