Quick Look at the Environment

Convective initiation has occurred along the dryline within a strongly unstable environment supporting intense convection over western Oklahoma. Visible satellite shows cumulus field displaced to the east, tied to richer low-level moisture and lower LCL heights. As storms move east into this more favorable environment and sufficient low level shear, low-level mesocyclones and tornadoes will become common with discrete supercells. Into the evening, a corridor of particularly favorable hodographs due to strengthening low level jet will occur over portions of central and north-central Oklahoma, supporting strong/long-track tornadoes even after dark. Will be watching experimental TORP, AzShear, and DvShear products closely during this evolution as part of this HWT experiment. So far, only one low-probability TORP indicated, but the near-term threat from an environmental standpoint is increasing.  -dryadiabat

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