The NUCAPS sounding pass showed greater MLCAPE than the RAP sounding shown as well as the RAP output on the SPC Mesoscale analysis. A difference may be how the RAP is mixing out low level moisture, as it has a lower mean mixing ratio (8.4 g/kg) than both the NUCAPS pass and the NAM forecast sounding at the same point (10.1 g/kg and 10.4 g/kg respectively). The NAM is known to have an undermixing bias but may be closer to reality in situations like this where the surface isn’t quite so hot and dry, giving more confidence to the NUCAPS instability.  Convection this afternoon is building into this area of instability, which makes the analysis important as it could play an impact on the magnitude of severe hazards.

-Joaq