AllSkyLAP Resolves Dry Mid-Level Layer

An eastward moving plume of moisture and instability was clearly depicted in the GOES16-Merged GFS AllSkyLAP products.  Estimated MLCAPE in the lower left panel is similar to the SPC mesoanlaysis data.  Into central Pennsylvania, values were in the 500-700 J/kg range.  So certainly on the low end for severe weather potential in the State College CWA based on instability alone.  However, one interesting feature caught my eye in the 700-300mb AllSky PWAT analysis — a west-to-east band of low values advecting through Indiana and Ohio into western PA. This mid-level drying is attendant to the eastern periphery of an EML that originated over the southwest U.S.  A plume of warmer 700mb temperatures in the RAP analysis matches up well with this dry band of mid-level air.  With the chance for scattered convection later today in central PA, the influx of a dry mid-level layer may aid in the production of strong convective winds/downbursts. -Roy