On the afternoon of May 21, portions of the Wichita (ICT) and Topeka (TOP) CWAs were under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch. To give one of the new GLM products a run through, I wanted to compare two cells of differing strength to see if GLM trends were helpful in nowcasting the cells. See the loop below.

The first cell of note was in Dickinson County (TOP CWA), and the second  was in Rice County (ICT CWA).  At the initial time of 2131Z, the storm in Dickinson County was already severe, and the Prob Severe Product supported this assertion with 68% prob wind and 76% prob tor. Meanwhile, the cell in Rice County was much weaker, with 50DbZ topping out below the -20C level (not shown), and prob hail/tor values of 2/1 % respectively.

At that time, the 5 minute flash extent density showed a little enhancement (max of 32), but the total optical energy was actually less (63 fJ) than several other, weaker storms in the area. Meanwhile, the storm in Rice county showed very modest flash density values (max of 9), but more significant TOE (144 fJ).

As the loop continues through the next 40 minutes, the intensity of the Rice County storm steadily increases as it moves northeastward, reaching Prob Hail values of 34% by the end of the loop (prob tor was still very low).  meanwhile, the storm originally in Dickinson County remained fairly steady state, with Prob Wind/Tor both at 68%.  It’s obviously conjecture at this point, but maybe the TOE product on the Rice County storm was signaling some type of intensification. hard to tell from just this one case, but interesting to note nonetheless.

Thorcaster