Since our shields have been engaged all afternoon I decided to look at a storm to our east. Below are a series of reflectivity images from the three lowest scans (0.5, 0.9, and 1.3)…

I won’t lie to you, if I were back in my home CWA I would have probably issued a SVR based on these scans, but I decided to hold off on issuing one today until we got close to 90% probabilities to see how ProbSevere did.  So what did ProbSevere show? Here is a sample of various MRMS products overlaid with ProbSevere contours…

And here is a time series for this storm looked like…

These trends looked pretty impressive, with ProbHail peaking around 86%. The increase in probabilities make sense, with MESH peaking around 1.4 in (below in purple).

We will have to wait and see if my decision to not issue a SVR based on a ProbHail is justified, but based on the lack of any reports, I think it may have been a good call.

UPDATE…The storm in question got one severe hail report.