The Prob Tor is 97% for this long line in the SHV CWA. Is that useful as a forecaster? It might seem like it isn’t, but let’s discuss. We’ve been watching circulations along the line through the shift. Early on, we issued several TORs, but in a number of cases, the circulations have been short lived along the segment.

So, as a forecaster or a WFO, you’ve got two ways you can go here in the current environment….

1) You can issue a SVR for straightline wind for the whole segment for a longer length of time (45-60min) given that the environment the line is moving into isn’t changing, and try to keep up with shorter lived, individual TOR warnings for the circulations

-or-

2) You can issue a severe thunderstorm warning for a shorter period of time for straightline wind (30 min) and tag that “lines can produce tornadoes) and see if that characteristics of the leading edge show clearer tornadic signs at some point.

At least the ProbTor alerts you to a decision to be made. It goes both ways in WFO offices in this situation.