All EWP Blog posts describe work done in an experimental setting (not official operations) and may include fictitious events and/or activities.

Eastern Amarillo CWA Storm

Posted in GOESR, Lightning Jump Algorithm, ProbSevere, Total Lightning on April 20, 2016 by Kristin Calhoun.

While we are watching storms in the Lubbock CWA, I kept an eye on a storm over the eastern portion of Amarillo CWA, near I-40. The ProbSevere was 25% at 2308 UTC and jumped to 84% by 2314 UTC as MRMS MESH and total lightning flash rates jumped significantly (also the effective bulk shear was rather high in the mid/upper 40 knots). The ProbSevere values continued to increase into the 90% range. A 1.00″ hail report was received at Interstate 40 at 2325 UTC and after the report was received, a severe thunderstorm warning issued. The good lead-time for this storm can be attributed to all predictors of ProbSevere–strong satellite growth rates, strong satellite growth rates, increasing lightning in a highly sheared environment and MRMS MESH over 1.00″.

NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere contours and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2308 - 2332 UTC 20 April 2016. — NOAA/CIMSS ProbSevere contours and MRMS composite reflectivity valid 2308 – 2332 UTC 20 April 2016. (click for animation)

-Sieglaff