Meso Discussion of CYS

Moisture gradient exists across the CWA.  The image below shoes the GOES derived PW across the area.  The green area is 0.70 inches or higher.  These PWs are in the 90th percentile for DVR.  Moisture across the area is much higher than typical.Screenshot-CAVE:CYS - D2DPW

Satellite derived CAPE, shows a gradient across central portions of the CWA.  This CAPE looks to be relatively accurate with the overall gradient.

Screenshot-CAVE:CYS - D2D -1

Looking at the RAP, 0-6km shear is around 50kts, this is conducive to supercell development across the area.  An upstream wave is moving into the area, this wave is still across Utah and probably will not make it to the area to force the storms to go linear.   Main threat will be large hail and damaging winds. Low level shear should increase later in the period when the LLJ kicks in.  So our threats for tornadoes will increase around 00z.

MacGyver and John Pendergrast

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