The CIMSS products coming in are a little old (16Z), but looking at the CAPE, LI, PWAT and SI, it’s pretty evident that the most favorable area for convection in the Jacksonville FA is the northern part. The CIMSS CAPE in this area is around 2000 J/kg, the PWAT is higher here than anywhere else in the FA (1.75”), and LIs are up to -6. I compared the SPC mesoscale analysis CAPE and PWAT (18Z) to the CIMSS data (16Z) and both showed the most favorable values in the northern part of the FA. The 0-6 km bulk wind shear appears relatively weak, so believe convection will be disorganized. The GFS model data shows a mid-level cold pool focused over the northern part of the FA, so this will likely be a focus for convective development. Believe that locally damaging winds and hail will be the main threats today. NAM forecast soundings show some dry air aloft which may enhance the potential for strong wind.

-Helen Hunt