The ProbSevere algorithm had a notable jump on the convection NW of BLX, despite it moving into an area that may not be as hospitable for severe weather. There were two ProbSevere clusters at 1920z; the northern one had a value of 23% and the southern at 73%.

At 1926z, the two were combined into one with a ProbSevere of 66%. Since it was maturing, ProbSevere may have moved past its prime usefulness.

Jason Williams