Overlaying point ’20’ with the West ENI DTA cell flash rate polygon showed significant increases in lightning activity in the time series product at at 2100Z and 2115Z. This was a good indicator that we needed to keep an eye on the storms and consider a warning due to a strengthening updraft. We probably should have issued the warning when we saw the first significant increase around 2100Z instead of waiting until 2115Z. The lightning jump algorithm product shown below displayed a value of 2 sigma at 2113Z on the same storm. I would have expected a higher sigma value, but the algorithm takes into account the big dip that we see at 2110Z, which averages out to an overall lower sigma value.

The NOAA/CIMSS prob severe model percent increased to 87% (shown in magenta) at 2102Z. We did not issue the warning until 2115Z, but probably could have gotten a longer lead time had we issued it when the prob severe first increased at 2102Z.

The warning has not verified yet, but it is in a very rural area.

-Helen Hunt