A well defined vort max on water vapor is moving into the KPDT CWA – very wound up. PWAT values of 1″ are showing up from the GOES sounder in the northeast CWA, which is the climatological max for June 1 at KBOI, the nearest sounding site (to the east).

Looking at RAP, CAPE gradient bisects the CWA at 20z. 0-6km shear is weak at 25 kts, suggesting organized convection will be multicell in nature. 0-1km shear is very low, basically negligible. Very large dry layer evident in the lowest 4000-5000 ft on the KBOI sounding. This suggests the main threats would be wind and possibly marginal hail (especially in the higher elevations) if any storms do turn severe. Really curious to see what the NUCAPS sounding looks like, especially in regards to the dry layer. We’ll have a forthcoming post regarding NUCAPS’ performance. We’ll have to see how the areas of clouds affect the data.

Given the strong shortwave, high PWATs, and weak flow, it appears heavy rain may be a threat from any convection that develops.

Eastern edge of the CWA is in an SPC MRGL outlook.

Jason Williams & MacGyver