Lubbock CWA not experiencing severe convection at beginning of shift, but departing cells observed to the north and northeast.  Based on mesoanalysis, will also watch MAF and ABQ CWAs for emerging storms that could be mature in the LUB area.

CI gave a useful signature for developing storms in Pecos Co TX, and Roosevelt Co NM.

For example.  Roosevelt Co storm first acquired a probability of severe (albeit small 7%) at 1906Z.  CI first passed 50% at 1815Z.  By time of writing (1940Z) it had trended down.

At 1950 two areas have CI >60%, Dickens Co and Briscoe Co.

AMA 12Z sounding was not judged to be representative.  Based on modified MAF sounding 3800 SBCAPE can be achieved, also represented by RAP mesoanalysis.

-Holaday

Two separate thunderstorms developed across south west Oklahoma. Using the lightning cell tracking feature, you can see a good lightning jump. However, an artificial decrease in the total flash rate occurred because of the cell tracking algorithm. The first image below shows the time series.

The rapid decrease around 1900z corresponds to the image below when the cell tracking feature tries to merge the two separate storms.

Utlility of Lightning Jump Detection algorithm in providing situational awareness on total lightning increase.

At 2241z…LJDA…detected a 3 sigma jump with the storm of concern. (Fig1)  At that time ENTLN data reported 177 cloud flashes…only 9 of which were CG. (Fig2)  Then at 2250z ENTLN reported 351 flashes…4 CG. (Fig3) The LJDA provided good situational awareness on this doubling of total lightning count and subsequent intensification. which based on 65-70 dbz reflectivity at 25000 ft was valid. (Fig 4) The other interesting note…is that most of the lightning was IC and not CG. CG data would have told you very little about this storms intensification.

Fig1.

fig2.

Fig 3

Fig 4

Reeves County supercell yielded useful lightning jumps on a few occasions.

Approximately 21:20Z jump of 2 sigma preceded severe hail reports.

A 21:45Z jump came ahead of pronounced inflow notch, right turn and tornadic behavior.  At this point fluctuations in the level continued to produce  some jumps that stood out, but the storm was already clearly severe.  Pictured is 22:32Z, along with path.

– Holaday

Convection developed in MAF CWA. Convective initiation probability exceeded 50% approximately 30 minutes before storms developed over Jeff Davis County.

Range from MAF radar is a limiting factor for storm analysis in this part of Texas. Subject had awareness of this due to Radar Quality Index (shown here as overlay on visible satellite).

This underscores the utility of GOES-R based products to the forecaster.

Modest jump in lightning also observed, may be examined in another post.

–

Additional convective development continues late this afternoon mainly along the sharp CAPE gradient in southwest Texas.

The ENI time trend flash data for a storm in sern NM did not seem to indicate the 7 sigma jump in strikes seen in the  LJDA. The LJDA had a 7 sigma jump indicated at 2235Z, however the time trend trace does not seem to warrant that value.

The Lightning Jump Detection Algorithm showed sigma values of 2 to 5 with some storms in the Western Portion of Norman’s CWA. Immediately after each jump there was a corresponding downward spike in lightning as seen in the Earth Networks time series below. This shows the pulsing nature of these storms.

The lightning detection color codes are helpful, but it would be nice to overlay these on radar to easily match up with cells. Perhaps make the shading translucent.

The modified NUCAPS sounding showed very good correlation with latest RAP output. (Fig 1) The lowest level of the sounding was modified based on nearest obs from KMRF and KE38 to generate around 2700 J/KG of MUCAPE. (Fig 2) This correlated well with the latest RAP data. (Fig 3)

Fig1

Fig 2

Fig 3.