A tornado was reported in Ellis County with tstm near Waxahatchie around 2019z. Due to distance from kdyz radar…we were overshooting the low-level rotational signature. This storm had about 55dbz reflectivity at -20c. Since it was a marginally severe storm…with uncertainty on rotation…no warning was issued.

Possible EWP clues…

GOES R superscan did indicate a strong updraft with visible overshooting tops…although not picked up GOES CI and overshooting top detection.

At 1936z…ENI DTA was alerted on this storm…but CIMSS prob svr never increased more than 20 percent. 

ENI flash rate trace below…showed a rapid doubling in lightning btwn 1940 and 1950z…indicating transition from an ordinary cell to a supercell. The tornado report was during the down trend in lightning. Previous studies have shown that this could be a possible time for tornado development as the storm weakens and rfd collapses.

So GOER R superscan, ENI lightning rate trace, and DTA could have been useful signals to warn on this marginally severe storm development. The ENI lightning trace could have pointed towards potential for tornadogenesis…based on conducive environment and possible weak boundary.

Pickles