Hello everyone! This is day one of Week 2 of the Experimental Warning Program and we are getting situated and learning the products and making procedures. I personally was excited to try out the ProbSvr model as I think it could help with storms that pulse and that become severe or near severe within a scan or two- this is extremely useful in the northeast and even in squall line situations. While looking at it today in LMK’s area, we got a report of power lines down and I captured some of the ProbSvr data and I found it very interesting. I’ll step through the times.

1818z- This is as the northern storm was strengthening and the ProbSvr is hinting about 24%.

Next, at 1823Z, the ProbSvr bumped up to 61%

At 1825Z, the next scan, the 61% is still there (probably the same run).

At 1829, the ProbSvr has decreased once again.

Although I didn’t put velocity here, it isn’t overly impressive. Important to note is the rear inflow notch that looks like it is trying to develop.

At 1830z, the office received a report of power lines down with this northern storm.

In the training on ProbSvr, the examples were giving huge lead times when the model went above 50% but this isn’t always the case. I found this case interesting because it only gave about a 7 minute “lead time” before the first event. It looks like the storm surged/pulsed right at that time but noticed how the model surged back down before the event. How does a forecaster handle this? When it surges up and goes right back down? Would it change my warning process if it decreased next scan? It is still too early to say what the implication is but I will definitely be keeping an eye on these probabilities as I go forward!

Lauren13