The predominant scenario for convection across the central/northern LUB CWA is the continued slow movement of the MCS. A weak outflow/remnant boundary exists west and south of the slowly easterly moving MCS that has acted as a trigger from some storms to fire as the mean southerly flow advects a shallow cumulus field toward the MCS. The dryline remains just west of the CWA and may be a focus for storms later this afternoon.

The CI field below continues to possess high percentages as it advects towards the outflow/remnant boundary. Overall it has been a good situational awareness aid. The example below shows a small cluster of cumulus with higher percentages near Girard, TX, at 2007Z that crossed the outflow boundary and quickly ramped up with increasing reflectivity values well above 35 dBZ (images from 2003 to 2011Z).

Brick Tamland