The cell that was diminishing as it crossed the border, started to show an increase aloft while finishing my previous post. That can be seen in the 2.4 degree scan from the SJT radar at 2317Z. That increase was noted before the ProbSevere began to increase and at this time it was showing 28%.

That increase continued over the next couple of scans, but unfortunately a data issue with the MESH product (value dropped to 0.00″) caused the ProbSevere to plummet to 10% at 2327Z (after rising to 50% at 2322Z).

Even with that issue, the continued increase in the radar signature prompted me to issue a SVR for the storm at 2331Z. Right around the time the warning was issued, the ProbSevere quickly jumped to 94% and then 97%.

While the ProbSevere data dropped out around the warning issuance time, its arrival with high values right after the warning issuance supported the thoughts I had from the radar data. -SRF