First severe storm warning issued at 2002 UTC for a storm over northern Pottawatomie county along strong instability gradient, just southeast of a weak surface low and in the vicinity of weak surface boundary.

Looking at the all-tilts products we noticed 60 dbz values above the -20C level and the ETN displayed a DTA with a significant increase in flash rate from around 30 to 60 to over 100 flashes in consecutive scans.  This coincided with GOES-R overshooting top detection as well as the lightning jump algorithm showing a 2 sigma jump followed by a 6 sigma jump.

The probability of severe increased to over 90% shortly after the warning went out and the PHI also was showing values in the 70s preceding the warning and was above 80% at the warning issuance.  This particular case in my mind really builds my confidence in the potential of the lightning jump, PHI and prob severe algorithms as it relates to warning operations and potentially improving lead time, of course after proper studies have been done in both verifying and null events.  It would be helpful to have some sort of threshold values for PHI and Prob severe as general guidance (based on geographical location).

DTA track was not very representative of the actual storm motion as it had a northern bias.  This could be due to the storm favoring the instability gradient and local boundary as the actual storm motion was more east of the DTA track.

Jack Bauer/Brick Tamland