3 body scatter spike on storm with very high prob severe and MRMS vil 3 grams/cubic M  OT Top detection also present. Confidence in severe is very high due to all of the above.

We stopped warning in progress as 3 body spikes disappeared. but we should have gone with it earlier,

DSatterfield

The ThetaE Difference product appeared to provide good guidance on where convection would develop.  As has been shown in the past, the gradient in the ThetaE difference product is where most of the action took place.

1930Z:

2030Z:

2130Z:

2230Z:

2330Z:

The prob severe on this storm has only increased to 22% from 7% at this time. This is because of obscuring clouds. But, the trend of increasing MESH in conjunction with radar signatures convinced us to issue a SVR.

jca

We had a severe thunderstorm warning out for a large cell, but based on prob severe dropping from 97 to 44%, we allowed it to expire while TORs were issued for the front side of the same storm. It looks like the energy focused to the front side of the line where TORs looked more likely.

jca

1km vis and OT detection.
An example of the display on awips 2 showing mature supercells and the OT detect. With no visible imagery at night this would be an exc. discriminator of severe cells. Prob Severe on all of the storms with OT detect was over 90%, The VLAPS Cape was useful in analyzing the environment of the far western storm (It was at the edge of the domain) which is in a small area of high instability but surrounded by much more unfavorable environment.
D Satterfield

Although I would cancel the SVR in the northeast based on the Prob Severe Model…I have a second SVR that extends into Nance county and do not want to confuse folks there.  Regardless, the prob severe model is useful here.

-KP

Got a report of golf ball sized hail 8 South of North Platte at 2238Z.  At this time, ProbSevere was low – about 40% and did not encompass LBF at all (see image).  MESH at this time was also low – 0.56.”  The hail core was fairly small – and maybe the report is suspect??  It was from a trained spotter.  Possible example of ProbSevere being underforecast.

Cell near KLBF had rapidly rising prob of SEVERE (during the time of the spotter report, but MESH below one inch. Trained spotter report of golf ball hail at 2238. Have serious doubt (based on past experience over many years!)about spotter report based on storm core and satellite presentation/MRMS VIL etc.

DSatterfield 2315Z 3 June

This storm in the NW corner of the picture has a prob severe of 97% with the probabilities 95% or above for more than 15 min. The MESH has consistently been 15 inches or larger. We are getting ready to issue a SVR based on this info and the fact that North Platte WFO has a warning on the storm.

jca