Many of the prognostic fields continued to show CI south of KLBF in that 21-22z timeframe – from the VLAPS and OUNWRF.  These were both too early with the CI – with more vigorous development evident as of 2215Z.  Prob severe quickly rose:

2214:  16%

2216:  53% (SVR issued here)

2218:  53%

2220:  78%

2222:  85%

Mike Fowle