Attempting to give a mesoscale environment update for my warning partner, I pulled up all of the LAPS products available in the 800×800 domain. The 20Z run is the latest available data and the ongoing storms (as of 2230Z) are depicted to be in a decent region of surface CAPE (>2000 J/kg), practically no CIN, and high pockets of surface and 2-5km instantaneous updraft helicity on the front edge of the broken line of convection. When I analyzed the LAPS’ max base reflectivity product and compared it with real-time MRMS composite reflectivity, it does okay in the 2.5-hour forecast in depicting a general region of convection stretching from east-central Illinois ESE toward the IN/OH/KY borders. The model is spatially displaced slightly but at least captures the general overview of the current setup.

Moving forward to the 4-hour forecast (00Z), LAPS forecasts the following:

If LAPS data is to be used to enhance near-term mesoscale forecasting, I personally would like to see some additional fields, such as wind, etc.

~Linda