I decided to look back at the NSSL-WRF Simulated Satellite Imagery (top left) and it is pretty close to the actual IR satellite (top right).  You can also see the MRMS radar (bottom left) that it had the idea of a cluster of storms breaking out in central Iowa to N. Illinois.  The only issue I would say is it may have been slightly slower (30 min-1hr) with initializing the convection.  Other than that it has it timed pretty well after. I like it! ~Vollmar