CIMSS Prob Severe Product did a great job illustrating a developing severe storm over South Central Ohio.  The SVR PROB increased from 32% at 1840 UTC, 94% at 1856 UTC, then decreased to 69% at 1920 UTC.  The MESH increased from 0.64 in. at 1840 UTC to 1.78 in. at 1856 UTC, then decreased to 0.95 in. at 1920 UTC.  Normal Vertical Growth Rate rose from 0.87%/min at 1840 UTC to 1.00%/min at 1856 and 1920 UTC.  The Glaciation Rate went from 0.02/min at 1840 UTC, 0.03/min at 1856 UTC, to 0.03/min at 1920 UTC.

The MUCAPE was around 1500 J/kg and ENShear ranged between 38 and 43 kt. The change in colors from blue to red and expansion in width of the outlined area depicting the reflectivity core provides warning forecasters valuable information for making warning decisions.  A Severe Thunderstorm Warning was issued for this storm in the HWT.

Michael Scotten